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A political boost for gold, but deals are still the key

Article Date:  Dec 05 2000

Bulls detect promising signs of life in the gold market, following suggestions from German and Italian politicians that the ailing euro should be pegged to gold, to give it some credibility. Over the past 20 years, gold has been as bad an investment as the euro will be if it continues its present course, but the idea seems to have helped perk up the yellow metal somewhat.

Gold has lately been trading in London at around $270 an ounce, $10 above its previous levels. How long this will last is anyone's guess, since the one sure feature of the stuff is its perverse financial performance.

But it has helped lift the FTSE Gold Mines index a few points off its bottom, still around a third down on the year. The markets are still more interested in corporate deals and special situations, though evidence of a sustainable upturn in the gold price could change all that.

Kebble could upset Anglo's Harmony

One deal which has yet to set the Thames or the Orange River alight is the offer from South African gold miner Harmony for Elandsrand, Deelkraal and Savuka, all mines in the mighty Anglogold stable. Harmony has offered to pay 'more than $128 million' in a deal which would increase its output to 2.8 million oz a year.

It is possible, however, that some spice could soon be injected into the deal. Harmony, which one London broker is considering advising to a full London listing, may not have an entirely clear run, whatever Anglogold's reaction.

Another South African group, Durban Deep, is contemplating a spoiling move, according to mining consultancy David Williamson. Roger Kebble, Durban Deep's boss, came in for severe censure recently in connections with dealings in Harmony shares in an episode in which one well-known London dealer had his knuckles rapped, and might relish the chance to get involved.

Durban Deep, whose strategy is to acquire mature mines and enhance their profitability, has said it may have access to funds to enable it to pitch for the Anglogold assets itself.

The same broker which has been looking at Harmony also considered taking Durban Deep to a full LSE listing, but claims to have found its gold hedge book too unappealing. Harmony, headed by the redoubtable Bernard Swanepoel, should, on the face of it, be better able to clinch a deal with the Anglo colossus than Durban Deep, but in mining there are few certainties.

Durban Deep, whose shares are trading at a year's low of 40p - almost two-thirds off their high - could have speculative appeal for gamblers. Harmony, at 263.5p, down from a 2000 peak of 454.25p, is a somewhat less speculative play, while Anglogold at £18 is more of a bet on gold price fundamentals.

Navan hits a high

Although the price of Navan Mining has fluctuated since it was first highlighted here, the shares have hit a new 12 month high of 94.5p, more than double its low of earlier this year. Investors liked the sound of the company's prospects in Spain and Bulgaria and its latest quarterly report to September should not discourage them.

Quarterly copper production is up 37 per cent, zinc output has risen by nine per cent and silver has increased by 60 per cent. In Spain, the Aguas Tenidas mine has improved production and the benefits from gold mine deepening at Chelopech in Bulgaria are starting to come through.

For those who bought in much lower, now could be the time to take some, if not all, your profits. Otherwise, it is worth hanging in there for a while.

Diamond float looks a gem

Stockbroker Williams de Broe reports a heavy over-subscription for its impending European Diamonds (ED) float on Aim. Institutions have been keen to buy at the 70p issue price, but, since the company is raising only £3 million, no one will obtain anything like a full allocation, if present interest persists.

Roy Spencer, the geologist who found the Archangel diamond deposit in Russia, wants to prove the deposit extends across the border into Finland, where ED is operating. Early indications have been encouraging, though the presence of a rich kimberlite field is as yet unconfirmed.

The after-market promises to be lively. This could be one for a yuletide spree, if you are prepared to risk a Boxing Day hangover.

More cheer from Glencar

Gold miner Glencar has not performed well since its last mention here, which highlighted someof its recent progress. Now the company has confirmed the discovery of 'significant gold mineralisation' at its Bawdia Bosso prospect, next door to its existing Wassa mine in Ghana. Hugh McCullough, chief executive, claims the latest exploration results 'reflect the very significant potential for the development of substantial additional reserves in new zones, separate from the existing workings'. In the past investors were hit by the discovery that Glencar had been more financially stretched than they had realised. This is now supposed to be sorted out and under control, leaving the shares at 9.5p a recovery punt if nothing else.

Burneing enthusiasm

Malcolm Burne, the entrepreneur heading Aim-quoted incubator Greenchip, professes a particular interest in mining deals these days - not exclusively because Greenchip's perceived dotcom emphasis has helped halve its share price this year. Another Aim company in which he is involved, Golden Prospects, is looking at several deals in the mining sector. Set up to pick up bargains after the mid-1990s Bre-ex scandal knocked all small miners for six.

Golden Prospect now claims to have £11 million in cash and securities and a 60 per cent institutional holding. At 17p, down from a 2000 high of 40.5p, it could benefit in the mature phase of a mining market boom.

Burne is particularly keen on Platinum Australia (PA), headed by a former stockbroker from Perth-based Hartley Poynton. At the equivalent of 22p, PA has some potential prospects in Western Australia and is only for the thickest skinned and strongest nerved.

This informaton was available to Growth Investor Club Members on November 28. Club Members can enjoy this weekly column immediately upon publication.

To find out more about Growth Company Investor Club simply click on About The Club on the left-hand side.

This story is from Growth Company Investor, the independent voice on fast-growing companies. Subscribe today for the latest AIM recommendations.

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